Israelis abroad fly home to vote in close Netanyahu–Eisenkot election

As many as 80,000 Israelis living abroad may return to Israel to vote in Tuesday's general election, according to an estimate from a group organising the trips, CNBC reported. With limited exceptions, Israeli citizens cannot vote from overseas, and polls show a close contest between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

The returning voters would make up a small share of an electorate of about 7.3 million, a figure CNBC attributed to the Washington-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

A close race with two main contenders

Netanyahu leads Likud and, according to CNBC, has been prime minister for 18 years across three separate periods in office. His main rival, Eisenkot, is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who now heads the Yashar party. CNBC reported that neither man is likely to be able to govern without coalition partners.

It is Israel's first national election since 2022. CNBC described pre-election polling as extremely tight but did not publish figures from individual surveys.

Yael Shomer, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University, told CNBC that the overseas voters could matter. "While not a large block, the 80,000 that may return home to participate could make a big difference in the final count of a very tight election," she said.

The issues dividing voters

Security, long a central concern for Israeli voters, has become more contested because of the war with Iran, CNBC reported. Two domestic disputes have also shaped the campaign: the exemption of some ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription, and Netanyahu's continued push for a plan that would give the governing coalition more control over the judiciary.

Shomer described the campaign as unusually intense. "This election is really about how we see our future, voter turnout will be very high," she told CNBC.

Turnout expectations

Turnout in 2022 was a little above 70 percent, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee, as cited by CNBC. The outlet reported that pollsters expect participation this time could reach as high as 87 percent.

Early voting points the same way. Diplomatic and consular staff, the only Israelis permitted to vote abroad, turned out at 90 percent, compared with a usual rate of about 70 percent, CNBC reported, citing the committee.

Organising the trip home

Much of the organised travel is being coordinated by Fly & Vote, an initiative of the America-Israel Democracy Coalition. According to CNBC, the U.S.-based group was founded in 2023 to oppose the Likud-led government's plan to overhaul the judicial system. The 80,000 figure is the organisers' estimate rather than an official projection.

Israeli rules bar parties and organisations from paying for voters' transport, whether within the country or from abroad, CNBC reported. Fly & Vote, which is funded by private donations, chartered a flight for Israelis living in Portugal and bought blocks of tickets on flights from the New York area. Passengers paid for their own seats.

Ora Peled-Nakash, the group's co-founder, told CNBC that the initiative does not take sides. "We don't take a political position though and we don't tell anyone how to vote, we just help them cast their ballot," she said.

Travellers booking independently have more options than in past elections. CNBC reported that El Al, for decades the only Israeli carrier flying between the United States and Israel, now competes with Arkia, which started U.S. service last year, and Israir, which began earlier this year. United and Delta have resumed flights to Israel after suspending them because of the war with Iran. Lufthansa serves Israel from Europe, and British Airways was due to restart flights this week, according to CNBC.

Peled-Nakash told CNBC that fares were roughly at normal levels. As of Sunday, the outlet found a few remaining El Al seats from New York's JFK and Newark airports, priced between $1,300 and $2,500.

Background

Israel held five national elections between 2019 and 2022 as repeated votes failed to produce stable governments. Netanyahu returned to office after the 2022 vote at the head of a coalition whose plan to curb the powers of the courts set off sustained protests in Israel and among Israelis abroad. Israeli law generally requires citizens to vote in person inside the country.

What comes next

After polls close on Tuesday night, exit polls and official results will show whether either leader can assemble a parliamentary majority. If the result is as close as polling suggests, coalition negotiations are likely to determine the next government. It is not known how many overseas voters will actually travel or whom they will support.

Source: CNBC

Picture: CNBC