Lula wins fourth term in Brazil as Bolsonaro's party accepts a result its candidate still rejects

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term as Brazil's president in a runoff on Sunday, October 25. He defeated right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro by about 4.4 million votes, three weeks after trailing him in the first round. On Monday, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party said it recognised the result, although Flávio Bolsonaro was still calling for the vote to be annulled.

The outcome keeps Latin America's largest democracy under a left-wing government. The BBC noted that voters in Argentina, Chile and Colombia have recently turned to the right. The result has also drawn challenges to the legitimacy of the vote. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, is contesting a decision to extend voting hours, and US President Donald Trump has questioned the count. Lula faces a divided electorate and, according to the BBC, a Congress dominated by Bolsonaro allies.

The result

Lula received 64.2 million votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 59.8 million, or 51.79% to 48.21%, The Guardian reported. In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro took 47% to Lula's 45%, according to the BBC. The BBC said Lula is the first candidate since Brazil's return to civilian rule in 1985 to win the presidency after losing the first round.

Turnout was central to Lula's victory. The BBC reported that 33 million people did not vote in the first round, and that the runoff produced the largest fall in abstention between rounds of a presidential election since 1989. The Hindu put the abstention rate at 21% in the first round and 19% in the runoff, and said the share of blank and spoiled ballots also fell.

Speaking to supporters in São Paulo in the early hours of Monday, Lula said: "Democracy always, dictatorship never again," The Guardian reported. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday. The BBC said his new term begins on January 5 and runs until 2030.

The dispute over extended voting

Flávio Bolsonaro's challenge centres on a two-hour extension of voting on election day. The BBC reported that the extension applied nationwide and was ordered by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, who was formerly Lula's lawyer. Some Bolsonaro supporters cite that link as evidence of bias.

Reports differ on who sought the extension. The Hindu said it was granted at Lula's request because of transport problems in some cities, and that Flávio Bolsonaro had separately asked for polling stations to stay open in some regions because of heavy rain. The BBC reported that both campaigns requested more time: Lula's campaign cited a shortage of buses in São Paulo and Bahia, while Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign cited rain in parts of the south and in São Paulo.

Kássio Nunes Marques, who heads the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and was appointed to the Supreme Court by Jair Bolsonaro, confirmed Lula's victory and said the extension did not change the outcome, according to both the BBC and The Hindu. Flávio Bolsonaro has called the result inexplicable, the BBC reported.

The party breaks with its candidate

Nearly a day after the result was announced, the Liberal Party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto, accepted the outcome. In a statement reported by The Hindu, the party said: "We recognise the presidential election results, as proclaimed by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), but we believe that the concerns raised need to be sufficiently addressed within a balanced and democratic political debate." Flávio Bolsonaro has since declared himself leader of the opposition, The Hindu reported.

On Monday, Flávio Bolsonaro said in a video that police had ordered him to surrender his passports and that he was barred from leaving Brazil. According to The Hindu, he attributed the order to a Supreme Court justice who, he said, had acted on a remark by his brother Eduardo, who is based in the United States. Before the vote, Eduardo Bolsonaro said on a US podcast that he would favour his brother leaving the country if he lost. "I never had any intention of leaving the country," Flávio Bolsonaro said, according to The Hindu.

Federal police are investigating Flávio Bolsonaro over alleged corruption linked to the financing of a biopic about his father, The Hindu reported. The Guardian said he faces several inquiries, including one into alleged money laundering. He denies wrongdoing.

International reaction

Trump, an ally of the Bolsonaro family, told reporters in Washington that the vote "looked like another rigged election," both The Guardian and the BBC reported. The BBC noted that he offered no evidence. Elon Musk also questioned the result, The Guardian said.

The governments of Mexico, Spain, France, Canada, China and South Africa were among those that congratulated Lula, as did the European Commission, according to the BBC and The Guardian. Right-wing leaders in Chile, Peru and Colombia also accepted the outcome. Colombia's president, Abelardo de la Espriella, had publicly backed Flávio Bolsonaro.

Background

Lula previously governed from 2003 to 2010. He returned to office in January 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, which the elder Bolsonaro did not concede. A week after Lula's inauguration, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in Brasília. Jair Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year sentence for an attempted coup, The Hindu and the BBC reported.

What comes next

Brazilian markets fell sharply on Monday. The BBC said the São Paulo stock exchange opened 15% lower and briefly suspended trading before partly recovering. The Hindu reported a drop of nearly 17%. Reports linked the fall to investor concern over fiscal policy.

Flávio Bolsonaro's Senate term ends in February, when he will lose parliamentary immunity, The Guardian noted. It is not yet clear whether his effort to annul the result will go forward without his party's backing.

Sources: The Hindu, The Guardian, Horn Diplomat, BBC

Picture: The Hindu